Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
